Bill Galston writes that polling in swing states shows an early advantage for Joe Biden, and that President Trump's handling of the COVID-19 crisis is hurting him among a … A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading Trump by 3 points in Florida, 49% to 46%. Biden's lead in averages of both national and swing state polls has widened in recent weeks as the Trump administration struggles to contain the coronavirus pandemic and meet nationwide calls to address police brutality and systemic racism. Voters prefer Biden to handle the coronavirus and police violence, while they think Trump will do a better job with the economy and getting people back to work. The Supreme Court is about to hit an undemocratic milestone. Here’s what you need to know about the most important races. Joe Biden is leading ​Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election. Biden, Trump Favorability; Fav/Unfavs vs. 2016; All Election Polls; State Polls; Senate Polls; Generic Ballot; Direction of Country; RCP Election 2020. Only 23% said it was helpful. The poll in Michigan surveyed 1,161 adults, including 1,082 registered voters and 799 likely voters, between Sept. 19 and Sept. 23. Wisconsin, which has 10 electoral votes, has also received national coverage in recent days following the shooting of 29-year-old Black man Jacob Blake in Kenosha. Party members believe one factor that could make places like Texas competitive is their effort to pump up youth turnout — a bloc that tends to have the lowest turnout rate, but one that leans Democratic. Maayan Silver, from WUWM, talked to voters in the area, many of whom suggested the back-and-forth over the issue was simply reinforcing their positions on the two candidates. Experts say Covid-19 cases are likely about to surge. They’re not actually connected. Only on the economy did likely voters have more faith in Trump, by a margin of 5 percentage points. See how President Trump is polling against challenger Joe Biden as each vies to win the 2020 presidential election. © 2020 Guardian News & Media Limited or its affiliated companies. The Hill 1625 K Street, NW Suite 900 Washington DC 20006 | 202-628-8500 tel | 202-628-8503 fax. A new CNN poll of registered voters shows President Trump trouncing former Vice President Joe Biden in key swing states. I think that Trump did the best that he could, considering the circumstances," Amy Taylor, a fitness instructor, told Detrow. “In 2020, because of America hating anti-Semite Rep. Omar, & the fact that Minnesota is having its best economic year ever, I will win the State!” His campaign has followed that bluster with a $14 million advertising push in the state, larger than their buys in the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin. The national polls. The result adds to a series of warning signs for Trump less than five months away from the election. While his core voting bloc — white voters without a college degree — made up a large percentage of nonvoters in 2016 and could turn out in greater numbers this year, an analysis of census data by NPR and the Brookings Institution indicates that his base is shrinking. Here’s what one week of online school is like for my 7- and 5-year-old kids. Nationally, Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he has retained a consistent lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. A Quinnipiac Poll conducted in mid-July showed Biden leading Trump by 13 points. But the national attention on protests has Trump supporters who rallied for him at the state Capitol last weekend pledging to stick with him. The survey also asked who voters prefer to handle a range of issues. The Guardian poll tracker tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states. "He's a strong — he's got a strong backbone," she said. In a new batch of swing-state polling released this weekend by the New York Times and CBS News, Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in several key states with just 51 days to go until the November election. "I'm sure there'll be riots no matter which way it goes," she says. National polls consistently show Biden with a lead, but the contest will come down to an electoral map that hinges on many of the same places that gave Trump the edge four years ago. See how President Trump is polling against challenger Joe Biden as each vies to win the 2020 presidential election The president's handling of the coronavirus remains the central factor in the campaign, and Democrats want to keep it that way. "My hope is that the tone of the presidency can return to what used to be normal," he told Censky. Frank Hulley-Jones and Poll: Biden leads Trump in swing states Wisconsin, Michigan . The CNBC/Change poll found 45% of likely voters in the six states approve of how Trump has handled the coronavirus, while 55% disapprove. Likely voters were split on who would better help their pocketbooks. According to NBC News, the Trump campaign does not see Nevada as a sure thing for Biden, either. Contribute today from as little as $3. Young Texas voters not excited about either candidate, David Ashcroft and Amanda Kilcrease pose for a portrait in El Paso, Texas. In 2016, Trump defeated Clinton, 49.02% to 47.82%. New Biden campaign ad jabs at Trump's reported 0 income tax payments, Biden campaign sells 'I paid more income taxes than Trump' stickers, Trump, Biden have one debate goal: Don't lose, Ocasio-Cortez: Trump contributed less in taxes 'than waitresses and undocumented immigrants', Third judge orders Postal Service to halt delivery cuts, Reporter Jonathan Easley says Tuesday debate will be major test for Biden. If the presidential election were held today, polls in crucial swing states like Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania suggest that Joseph R. Biden Jr. would be in position for a narrow victory. Get our newsletter in your inbox twice a week. Biden's edge grew from 1 percentage point in the last swing-state poll released two weeks ago. A CNBC/Change Research survey shows Biden leading by 5 points in Wisconsin, 49% to 44%. Trump led in all previous versions of the survey dating back to March. Polls: Joe Biden leads Trump in several key swing states, We now know what Trump was trying to hide by holding back his tax returns. Both the president and Biden have visited Michigan in recent days, and the state was part of the "blue wall" of three Midwest states that flipped and supported Trump, handing him the White House in 2016. The poll released Wednesday found Biden leading Trump in all six states for the first time (though only narrowly in some): The CNBC/Change Research poll surveyed 2,408 likely voters across the six states from June 12-14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Overall, these polls contain good news for Biden — but many of his leads, like those in New Hampshire and Arizona, are narrow ones, suggesting there is still room for the president to swing opinion his way. While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election, a strong polling lead across the country can point to how the race will develop. We Insist: A Timeline Of Protest Music In 2020, Trump's Rural Support Puts Democratic Bulwark Minnesota In Play. Minnesota Public Radio's Mark Zdechlik talked to Gretchen, a registered Democrat in Aitken, a rural town in the northern part of the state. The survey found the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee leads the incumbent by a 48% to 45% margin across Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, which will determine who wins the White House in November. Arizona has been a solidly red state going back to the 1950s, and the last time it voted for a Democrat for president was 1996. The same polls suggest Trump is in danger of ceding Arizona and Wisconsin to Biden in November. He cited the Democrat's temperament as a key factor. Here’s what it can teach us in 2020. In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election, six of the eight states we focused on were those that flipped to Trump​ in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. "It kind of makes me sick to my stomach just knowing that I put one of these people in office," he told Kocherga. Each day, the Guardian’s national poll tracker takes a 14-day average of national voting intention polls. Texas is another reliably red state that some Democrats argue should be considered a swing state this year, with shifting demographics changing the electorate there. KTEP's Angela Kocherga visited El Paso, one of Texas' few strongholds for Democrats. (These interviews with voters were conducted before the news broke that Trump told author Bob Woodward in February that the virus was "deadly stuff" and that in March, he said he deliberately "wanted to play it down" to avoid a panic.). The president's support is still strong in the rural communities where he surged in 2016. Sign up for the The margin of error for the likely voter sample was 4.3 percentage points. WKAR's Abigail Censky visited one town, Williamston, that is competitive this time around and where there appears to be a split. Millions rely on Vox’s explainers to understand an increasingly chaotic world. Biden … So there’s astronomical unemployment there.”. Lauren Cross, involved in the Kenosha protests, told Silver about those on the streets: "I think, like, all the people out here are voting against Trump in some capacity. With 51 days to go, polls suggest that Biden’s lead is holding. Trump's approval rating has also reached its worst level since February 2019, according to a FiveThirtyEight average. However, the New York Times and CBS polls would appear to throw some cold water on Trump’s Minnesota ambitions: While Clinton eked out a narrow win by less than 2 percent in 2016, both the New York Times and CBS show Biden leading Trump by 9 percentage points. But that doesn’t guarantee ​the Democratic candidate victory. newsletter. A CNBC/Change Research survey showed Biden with a slimmer lead against Trump, 49% to 46%. The small contingent of undecided voters said they are unenthusiastic about their choices. But the right-leaning Trafalgar Group poll shows Trump with a slim lead on Biden, 46% to 45%. The latest polling average puts Joe Biden ahead of Trump nationally. Where Biden, Trump stand in key swing states ... A St. Pete Polls survey that found Trump and Biden tied also found them running neck and neck among voters over the age of 50. This time around, the GOP has indicated they’re playing to win in Minnesota. Todd Gardner said that there still is a lot of support for Trump, but that he's prepared to back "anybody but Donald Trump.". The incident put the issue that the president has been focused on front and center in a state Trump won by less than 23,000 votes in 2016. David Ashcroft, a 21-year-old waiter, appeared repelled by both candidates. Its congressional district backed Trump in 2016 but elected a Democrat, Elissa Slotkin, to Congress in 2018. Gotta go one way, so we're gonna go the Biden way." View the results of 2020 election polls. Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in six key 2020 swing states, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. North Carolina, which was won by Democrat Barack Obama in 2008, has 15 electoral votes. "First off, has there ever been a pandemic to take over the world like this in such a short period of time? In 2016, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire; Trump won Arizona and Wisconsin. Here is what NPR learned from conversations with voters in several key states: Trump retains loyal support in battleground states' rural areas. Of course, polling isn’t prophecy. The president won that area by 30 percentage points in 2016, and the massive crowd that showed up for his event during the pandemic shows the deep support he still has from his loyal base. A CNBC/Change Research poll has Biden with a narrow lead over Trump, 49% to 47%. Jimmy Jenkins/KJZZ Biden also leads Trump among registered voters in the key swing states of Wisconsin and North Carolina, according to CNN polls released Tuesday. While Gretchen was among a small group of voters who were moving to a new party in 2020, many voters whom NPR and station reporters talked to had strong feelings about why they were sticking with their preferred candidate. Got a confidential news tip? A resident of Kenosha, Wis., puts up a yard sign for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Sept. 3. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. Trump, on the other hand, outdoes Biden among men, white voters without college degrees and white evangelical Christians. Miranda July’s enduring love for the weirdo in all of us, One Good Thing: Vintage Nintendo games are good vibes made playable. And given one needs only to win the electoral college rather than the popular vote, a candidate winning over even a portion of a group that may have traditionally voted for his rival could have an outsized effect on results. The entire [Las Vegas] strip is shut down, for the most part. Polls: Joe Biden leads Trump in several key swing states With 51 days to go, polls suggest that Biden’s lead is holding. By Cameron Peters @jcameronpeters Sep 13, 2020, 3:43pm EDT NPR's interviews found his harsh "law and order" rhetoric is resonating with some voters, and the fact that some unrest is happening in states that are competitive politically is causing both campaigns to ramp up attention and resources in those places. Millions turn to Vox each month to understand what’s happening in the news, from the coronavirus crisis to a racial reckoning to what is, quite possibly, the most consequential presidential election of our lifetimes. Michael Swensen for NPR Democrats try to expand map into traditionally red territory, Kevin Wood and Rachael McDermott pose for a masked portrait at a farmer's market in Phoenix. But NPR interviews with voters across the country around Labor Day weekend found that most are locked into their support for either President Trump or Democratic nominee Joe Biden. As my colleague Li Zhou has explained previously, polls only really “capture public sentiment during a moment in time,” and things could still change, especially with three presidential debates yet to come. hide caption. ​Because the presidential ​voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which​ go to the state’s victor regardless of the​ margin of victory, a handful swing states will ​probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners. All rights reserved. The Guardian is collating polls in each of these ​states, as well as another set of national polls. NPR's Scott Detrow, KJZZ's Jimmy Jenkins, KTEP's Angela Kocherga, WUWM's Maayan Silver, WKAR's Abigail Censky and MPR's Mark Zdechlik contributed to this report. Likewise, a CBS News/YouGov survey conducted from September 9 to 11 gives the former vice president the edge among likely voters in both Minnesota and Arizona. “In 2016 I almost won Minnesota,” Trump tweeted last year. And the other ones are for chaos and no order," Ralph Ruggiero, who was carrying a "Liberty or Death" sign, told Jenkins. "You know, you have to ... look what they did in Kenosha when the National Guard came in and enough backup came. CBS reports Biden narrowly leads Trump by 3 percentage points in Arizona, and according to the New York Times poll, Biden is up by 5 percentage points in Wisconsin. Biden's edge grew from two weeks ago as surveys broadly show the president's approval rating falling. You know, the rioting and all that stopped.". But she isn't convinced that after Election Day the country will move past the intense partisan split. "He's my law-and-order president. Please also read our Privacy Notice and Terms of Use, which became effective December 20, 2019. I didn't know that," Kaminski told Silver. The president's focus on more rural areas may have limited yield. hide caption. Minnesota voted for Clinton in 2016, but a combination of the reaction to the looting in Minneapolis and broader local economic issues are boosting GOP prospects in the state. She declined to give her last name because of concerns about the impact on her business, but she said she is disillusioned by Democrats now, pointing to unrest in Minneapolis earlier this year and in other cities, and said even though she backed Clinton four years ago, she cannot get behind Biden. Specifically, a New York Times/Siena College poll taken from September 8 to 10 shows Biden retaining his lead with likely voters in four important states: Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin. Supporters of President Trump line up outside of Arnold Palmer Regional Airport to get into a Sept. 3 rally in Latrobe, Pa. Juweek Adolphe, Mon 28 Sep 2020 04.28 EDT A NBC News-Marist poll released Sunday found Democratic nominee Joe BidenJoe BidenNew Biden campaign ad jabs at Trump's reported 0 income tax payments Biden campaign sells 'I paid more income taxes than Trump' stickers Trump, Biden have one debate goal: Don't lose MORE leads President TrumpDonald John TrumpNew Biden campaign ad jabs at Trump's reported 0 income tax payments Ocasio-Cortez: Trump contributed less in taxes 'than waitresses and undocumented immigrants' Third judge orders Postal Service to halt delivery cuts MORE in swing states Wisconsin and Michigan. The likely voter numbers in Michigan fell within the margin of error, but the Wisconsin results were outside of the margin of error. Even when the economy and the news advertising market recovers, your support will be a critical part of sustaining our resource-intensive work, and helping everyone make sense of an increasingly chaotic world. They gave Biden and Democrats the edge on handling the coronavirus, putting the middle class first, making health care more affordable, addressing police violence and discrimination and bringing the country together during times of crisis. We use cookies and other tracking technologies to improve your browsing experience on our site, show personalized content and targeted ads, analyze site traffic, and understand where our audiences come from. ", A "law and order" message in crucial Wisconsin. But one former supporter of Trump's who expressed concerns about looting and unrest in Wisconsin did tell Silver she couldn't back him again. The NBC News-Marist poll in Wisconsin surveyed 1,131 adults. A Franklin & Marshall poll released Thursday showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points in Pennsylvania, 49% to 42%. hide caption. In this particular moment in time, though, Biden looks to be in a strong spot ahead of the November election. As CNN’s John Harwood points out, Biden is also quite a bit more popular than Clinton was in 2016, while the majority of Americans still dislike Trump. As the presidential campaign heats up, the Guardian is tracking the latest polling in eight states that could decide the election, Ashley Kirk, She ended up losing in the electoral college. "We'll do our part. The margin of error for the registered voter sample was 3.7 percentage points. Of course, the deficit Trump faces in key electoral college states is hardly insurmountable, and he still has more than four months to make up ground. View the results of 2020 election polls. The race to shift the balance of power in the US Senate is fiercely contested. NPR's Scott Detrow talked to Trump backers waiting to hear the president at his rally in Latrobe, Pa., last week. The state also has a gubernatorial and senate race in November. In fact, Trump campaign officials view Nevada as part of an “alternate route” to winning 270 electoral votes, should the president lose some of the states that handed him victory in 2016. ", Republican state Rep. Dale Lueck represents Aitkin and the surrounding area in rural Minnesota. For Biden to win, he needs to reclaim some of these swing states. Another voter affected by the virus and who remains unemployed doesn't blame Trump. Mark Zdechlik/MPR News Any polls deemed unreliable – for example, because they have small sample sizes – are excluded. Former Vice President Joe Biden has expanded his edge over President Donald Trump in six 2020 election swing states, according to a new CNBC/Change Research poll. Republican state Rep. Dale Lueck represents Aitkin and the surrounding area in rural Minnesota. Sign up for free newsletters and get more CNBC delivered to your inbox. He instills riots and discord," said Karen Cayman, who lives in an area north of Milwaukee. According to poll aggregator Real Clear Politics, Biden leads Trump in every Michigan poll. "The best thing for me is just to not vote. hide caption. So another surge of coronavirus cases seems likely. Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in ​eight swing states. On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for their next president, with a choice between ​Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing states this year. Among registered voters, Biden held a 9 percentage point lead in Michigan, outside of the margin of error, and an 8 percentage point lead in Wisconsin, within the margin of error. Our mission has never been more vital than it is in this moment: to empower you through understanding. Michigan, which has 16 electoral votes, was won by Trump in 2016 by 10,704 votes. The state has experienced an influx of retirees, but also includes more minority voters — especially Latino voters. To win the state, he said, Biden will have to present a clear plan of how his policy vision will help those who need work, and income, right now. In both states, Biden holds an advantage of at least 17 percentage points among likely voters who think he’d better handle the coronavirus and race relations. State polls released this week show Democratic nominee Joe Biden leading Republican President Donald Trump in crucial states, such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida. Oregon already votes by mail. However, Arizona, which has 11 electoral votes, has been shifting blue in recent years. A new poll finds that President Trump is leading former Vice President Joe Biden by two points in six swing states. Get this delivered to your inbox, and more info about our products and services. We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind. The poll attributed Biden’s lead among likely voters in Michigan to his majority support among Black voters, women, independents, white voters with college degrees and seniors. I know we live in a divided nation, but it just seems he's made it more divided than it has to be. The 2020 presidential campaign heads into the fall stretch with a dizzying pace of news developments threatening to upend the contest. "The Republican Party is kind of speaking to my heart more than the Democrats so I think I'm going to have to vote Trump this time," Gretchen said. Like other key swing states, the effort by the Trump campaign to push up votes from rural parts of Wisconsin could help him again. Rocha said Democrats have not been sensitive enough to the economic hardship that has affected the area — and that has impacted Latinx voters particularly hard. ​voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes. Additionally, activists — seeing an uptick in people coming out for demonstrations — vow that a focus on racial justice issues is motivating people not just to protest, but to vote. These latest results fall in line with these standing trends. To learn more or opt-out, read our Cookie Policy. The new polls show a stark gender divide, with women propelling Biden into contention in states Trump must win. Sheri Holman, a Michigan union member who is among a bloc in the state who abandoned Democrats for Trump in 2016, is sticking with the president, even though she admits she doesn't like him personally. A resident of Kenosha, Wis., puts up a yard sign for Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden on Sept. 3. "I think this has not been a normal four years of a president, and I really would like to get back to people not shouting at each other. The latest polling average puts Biden ahead of Trump nationally. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading Trump by 6 points in Michigan, 50% to 44%. About 41% of respondents to recent surveys compiled by FiveThirtyEight approve of the president, while 55% disapprove. How sorry should Bloomberg really be about his 'Stop and Frisk' policy? All Rights Reserved. Chip in as little as $3 to help keep it free for everyone. “The entire Culinary Union is laid off. More than 190,000 Americans have now died from the virus. Morry Gash/AP Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. The false link between Amy Coney Barrett and The Handmaid’s Tale, explained. A majority of respondents, 52%, said Trump's response to the police killing of George Floyd and protests for criminal justice reform was harmful. Respondents preferred Trump and Republicans on the economy and getting people back to work. KJZZ's Jimmy Jenkins talked to voters at a farmer's market in Phoenix, where some undecided voters said they were not thrilled with their choices. Pablo Gutiérrez, In a conventional presidential race, any one of the grave issues in the headlines now — the coronavirus pandemic and Trump's own words about the "deadly threat"; a battered economy leaving millions of people jobless and businesses shuttered; the debate about a vaccine; media reports on Trump's comments about service members; wildfires engulfing the West — could turn the race for one candidate. According to CNN, just 13 percent of registered voters either haven’t decided or are still open to changing their minds, and a Quinnipiac University poll from earlier this month found that only 3 percent of likely voters were still undecided. And Biden’s national average also squares with a recent Fox News poll of likely voters, which shows Biden with a slightly smaller lead versus Trump — just 5 percentage points — but a solid advantage on most issues, including racial inequality, the pandemic, health care, the courts, immigration, and policing. "In the new poll, 51% of registered voters nationwide back Biden, © 2020 CNBC LLC. The New York Times’s major new story reveals that Trump had political, legal, and financial reasons to hold back the returns. In the Michigan poll, Trump led Biden among likely voters who were asked which candidate would better manage the economy, with 49 percent backing Trump and 42 percent backing Biden. The margin of error for the registered voter sample was 3.7 percentage points. He's attracted to Biden's pitch to return to a high level of civil discourse. By choosing I Accept, you consent to our use of cookies and other tracking technologies. Trump and Biden are in a tight race for support among all white voters and white Catholics. But Kocherga found younger voters in El Paso were split on whether their vote would even matter — a sign the party still has work to do. That's who he is. The likely voter sample had a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, and the registered voter sample had a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points. Both the president and Biden visited Wisconsin last week — with very different messages. Looking beyond the particulars of any one poll, polling for the 2020 presidential race has been largely stable. For those deciding to back Biden, meanwhile, the vote appears to be less about enthusiasm for him and more about getting rid of Trump. The killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police in May triggered a national movement calling for racial justice. In 2018, the state elected a Democrat in a tight gubernatorial race. Biden's lead in averages of both national and swing state polls has widened in recent weeks as the Trump administration struggles to contain … But Democrats vow not to have a repeat of 2016, when turnout dropped in urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison, and Hillary Clinton's campaign appeared not to pay enough attention to the state. But the Trump campaign seized on the unrest — sometimes violent in several urban areas across the country — to argue that Democrats were soft on crime and that if Biden won, the threat against law enforcement would grow and spread to the suburbs. The margin of error for the likely voter sample was 4.3 percentage points. Nationally, Biden leads Trump by an average of about 7.3 percentage points, and he has retained a consistent lead in key swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania. The poll in Michigan surveyed 1,161 adults, including 1,082 registered voters and 799 likely voters, between Sept. 19 and Sept. 23. Joe Biden now leads Trump in all six battleground states, averages of both national and swing state polls, Trump administration struggles to contain the coronavirus pandemic. It included 951 registered voters and 727 likely voters and was taken between Sept. 20 and Sept. 24. Available for everyone, funded by readers. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this​. By Justine Coleman - 09/27/20 12:14 PM EDT . We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. Angela Kocherga/KTEP But I'm also not happy with the outcome of Biden. But in Wisconsin, the candidates are tied on the economy with 46 percent support. After this standardi​zation process, we take a mean average of these daily entries to present the polling average. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes.

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